Yogi Berra was right. And so was whoever said "It's not over till the gravitationally-challenged, socially-important, assigned-female-at-birth person sings." Or you can look back a few millennia to Aesop and his chickens.
As long as there have been elections, people have been trying to anticipate the results.
I find polls moderately interesting, even the disturbing but legal election betting markets, but I try to be neither elated nor depressed by them. I'm going to refer you to my Poll Results post from early August. Better yet, I'll reprint it below. Complacency is a dangerous enemy. So is believing that the ends justify the means.
Here's a question I'd like to ask of political pollsters:
What is the ideal position for a political candidate in the polls, at various times before an election?
Clearly, to be leading in the polls on Election Day (or whatever passes for Election Day in these days of early voting and mail-in ballots) is a good thing. But what about earlier? To be doing well at any point feels great, and can boost support due to the "to him who has, more will be given" effect. People like to be on the winning team, and tend to flee people they feel can't win.
I think there's more to it than that. The following excerpt is from Robert A. Heinlein's Citizen of the Galaxy; it has haunted me since I first read it in elementary school.
Weemsby stood up and looked happy. "In my own person, I vote one share. By proxies delivered to me and now with the Secretary I vote—" Thorby did not listen; he was looking for his hat.
"The tally being complete, I declare—" the Secretary began.
"No!"
Leda was on her feet. "I'm here myself. This is my first meeting and I'm going to vote!"
Her stepfather said hastily, "That's all right, Leda—mustn't interrupt." He turned to the Secretary. "It doesn't affect the result."
"But it does! I cast one thousand eight hundred and eighty votes for Thor, Rudbek of Rudbek!"
Weemsby stared. "Leda Weemsby!"
She retorted crisply, "My legal name is Leda Rudbek."
Bruder was shouting, "Illegal! The vote has been recorded. It's too—"
"Oh, nonsense!" shouted Leda. "I'm here and I'm voting. Anyhow, I cancelled that proxy—I registered it in the post office in this very building and saw it delivered and signed for at the 'principal offices of this corporation'—that's the right phrase, isn't it, Judge?—ten minutes before the meeting was called to order. If you don't believe me, send down for it. But what of it?—I'm here. Touch me." Then she turned and smiled at Thorby.
Thorby tried to smile back, and whispered savagely to Garsch, "Why did you keep this a secret?"
"And let 'Honest John' find out that he had to beg, borrow, or buy some more votes? He might have won. She kept him happy, just as I told her to."
A really commanding lead can discourage competitors from pouring money and effort into a losing cause. But somewhere in between that kind of lead and the bottom of the heap there's a point—I'm going to call it the Garsch Point—where a lead is dangerous. Two terrible things can come into play:
- A candidate's own supporters can become complacent, let down their guard, and like the overconfident hare, risk losing to the lagging but persistent tortoise.
- A zealous opponent, who would rather win honestly, may be tempted to resort to nefarious means of helping himself to victory. After all, when you're fighting infidels, it's okay to lie, cheat, steal, and even kill, right? Well, no, it's not. But the temptation can be great if you think the contest is critical and you might get away with it.
Beware the Garsch Point. It's okay to be happy to be leading in the polls, but it ought to be less a time for celebrating than a time for doubling down on honest and honorable effort. And maybe for not letting your enemy know your full strength.
