Yogi Berra was right. And so was whoever said "It's not over till the gravitationally-challenged, socially-important, assigned-female-at-birth person sings." Or you can look back a few millennia to Aesop and his chickens.

As long as there have been elections, people have been trying to anticipate the results.

I find polls moderately interesting, even the disturbing but legal election betting markets, but I try to be neither elated nor depressed by them. I'm going to refer you to my Poll Results post from early August. Better yet, I'll reprint it below. Complacency is a dangerous enemy. So is believing that the ends justify the means.

Here's a question I'd like to ask of political pollsters:

What is the ideal position for a political candidate in the polls, at various times before an election?

Clearly, to be leading in the polls on Election Day (or whatever passes for Election Day in these days of early voting and mail-in ballots) is a good thing. But what about earlier? To be doing well at any point feels great, and can boost support due to the "to him who has, more will be given" effect. People like to be on the winning team, and tend to flee people they feel can't win.

I think there's more to it than that. The following excerpt is from Robert A. Heinlein's Citizen of the Galaxy; it has haunted me since I first read it in elementary school.

Weemsby stood up and looked happy. "In my own person, I vote one share. By proxies delivered to me and now with the Secretary I vote—" Thorby did not listen; he was looking for his hat.

"The tally being complete, I declare—" the Secretary began.

"No!"

Leda was on her feet. "I'm here myself. This is my first meeting and I'm going to vote!"

Her stepfather said hastily, "That's all right, Leda—mustn't interrupt." He turned to the Secretary. "It doesn't affect the result."

"But it does! I cast one thousand eight hundred and eighty votes for Thor, Rudbek of Rudbek!"

Weemsby stared. "Leda Weemsby!"

She retorted crisply, "My legal name is Leda Rudbek."

Bruder was shouting, "Illegal! The vote has been recorded. It's too—"

"Oh, nonsense!" shouted Leda. "I'm here and I'm voting. Anyhow, I cancelled that proxy—I registered it in the post office in this very building and saw it delivered and signed for at the 'principal offices of this corporation'—that's the right phrase, isn't it, Judge?—ten minutes before the meeting was called to order. If you don't believe me, send down for it. But what of it?—I'm here. Touch me." Then she turned and smiled at Thorby.

Thorby tried to smile back, and whispered savagely to Garsch, "Why did you keep this a secret?"

"And let 'Honest John' find out that he had to beg, borrow, or buy some more votes? He might have won. She kept him happy, just as I told her to."

A really commanding lead can discourage competitors from pouring money and effort into a losing cause. But somewhere in between that kind of lead and the bottom of the heap there's a point—I'm going to call it the Garsch Point—where a lead is dangerous. Two terrible things can come into play:

  • A candidate's own supporters can become complacent, let down their guard, and like the overconfident hare, risk losing to the lagging but persistent tortoise.
  • A zealous opponent, who would rather win honestly, may be tempted to resort to nefarious means of helping himself to victory. After all, when you're fighting infidels, it's okay to lie, cheat, steal, and even kill, right? Well, no, it's not. But the temptation can be great if you think the contest is critical and you might get away with it.

Beware the Garsch Point. It's okay to be happy to be leading in the polls, but it ought to be less a time for celebrating than a time for doubling down on honest and honorable effort. And maybe for not letting your enemy know your full strength.

 

Posted by sursumcorda on Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 5:31 am | Edit
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Are you nervous about what might happen on and after Election Day? Do you fear the coming year? Do you awaken in the middle of the night from nightmares in which you find yourself surrounded by bonfires and people chanting, "Remember, remember the Fifth of November"?

Have I got a deal for you.

alt

Actually, it's Amazon that has the deal. C. S. Lewis's George MacDonald: An Anthology is currently on sale for $1.99.

It's impossible to overstate the influence MacDonald had on Lewis, and this collection of 365 excerpts from his writings is a great introduction.

I HIGHLY recommend it, whatever your political leanings.  (For more on George MacDonald, see my post "All Is Gift - A Legacy from C. S. Lewis.")

Posted by sursumcorda on Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 6:10 am | Edit
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Here are a few quotes from an Epoch Times article called "Small Actions to Save the World."

A consensus seems to be emerging. Civilization as we knew it only a few years ago appears to be decaying. ... You probably agree and would like to do something about it. But what?

The expectations and connotations of the word change have flipped. Whatever it is, you can predict that the change will be toward something worse, more degraded, more debased, and so on.

Being surrounded by that reality casts a kind of pall over daily events and choices and affects how we look at the world. It determines whether we expect the dawn or the darkness, and this outlook tends to be self-fulfilling in one way or another.

If we don’t speak out in small ways ... the decline will surely continue without any pushback. If there is going to be pushback, someone has to do it.

At the same time, I started to appreciate anew the institutions that are upholding values consistent with the good life: good service, decorum in manners and dress, attention to quality, genuine commitment to excellence, and so on. When you run into examples of this, it is something you can do to point it out and praise it.

Above all,

Rather than giving into the attitude of decline and fully expecting the darkness of night to be the next step, we can proceed through life with a determination to make sure that it does not happen. We can all do something, even if it’s very small, but those actions might make a big difference.

Once you start paying attention to the signs of those who are trying to improve the world rather than tear it down, you will find them everywhere. Sometimes, a little voicing of support is all that is necessary to make sure it continues. Reward the good and stand up against the bad: Everyone can do this in small ways.

Yes, we need much bigger changes to save the world. Above all else, we need a new respect for freedom and rights, and that requires dramatic political change. But we cannot count on that, and, in addition, big changes are downstream from the small ones. There are features of life we do control, and here is where everyone can be part of the change.

Posted by sursumcorda on Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 3:38 pm | Edit
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This post is written from a Christian perspective, but much of it could be appropriate for anyone.

How do we pray for an election?  Is it right to pray for our people to win?  If God thinks we need to have the other guys in office, who are we to presume otherwise?  That's a much bigger question than just about an election, and much better people than I have wrestled with it over the ages. The best I can do is paraphrase they way I remember C. S. Lewis dealing with it: If you can work for a candidate's success, if you can contribute to his campaign, if you can vote for him—it's certainly something appropriate to pray for.

Nonetheless, as much as I want Donald Trump to return to the Oval Office, I was for a long time reluctant to pray for his victory.  After all, what if I'm wrong?  What if America actual needs Kamala Harris as our leader?  I'm not omniscient, much less perfectly wise.  What if I do that, and God answers my prayer—and I regret it?  Certainly it sometimes happens that he gives us what we beg for—and then makes good come out of what could have been better.  But again, better folks have written on all these questions.

It was taking another look at Christ's prayer in the Garden of Gesthemane that made sense of it for me.  "My soul is overwhelmed with sorrow to the point of death." ... "Father, if you are willing, remove this cup from me.  Nevertheless, not my will, but yours, be done." ... And being in agony he prayed more earnestly; and his sweat became like great drops of blood falling down to the ground. [My condensation]

Jesus knew well beforehand that his Father's plans for him included an agonizing death.  He knew it well and had already told his disciples that it was necessary for the accomplishment of what he had come to earth to accomplish. But he was terrified, and didn't hesitate to pray for some way out of it.  If Jesus Christ can pray desperately to avoid something he sees no good way out of, I guess I can pray for election results.  The trick comes in how he always ended these prayers: with "Not my will, but yours be done."

So this is, roughly, how I pray for this election.

  • That it would be free and fair,
  • That the candidates and causes I care about will be victorious, and most especially that
  • God will work out his will in and through the election—let's be real here; he knows better than I do.

And one more thing: Win or lose, that we face the next four years with the same attitude I witnessed in New York City, less than two weeks after the 2016 election that put Donald Trump in office the first time.  As I wrote previously, 

Coming so soon after the election, it was delightful to find everyone so polite, considerate, and going out of their way to be friendly and helpful.  Even a multi-racial discussion about the election itself, which we overheard in a local restaurant, was calm, reasoned, and willing to give others the benefit of the doubt. Willing to give Donald Trump a chance.

We need more of that, whoever wins this election.

Posted by sursumcorda on Monday, October 28, 2024 at 4:03 pm | Edit
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It's easy to focus on the dark side as we approach this election, which is why I ardently hope that you will take half an hour to listen to what Jordan Peterson and Dave Rubin have to say in the following video. It occurred during the pre-show activities of the Rescue the Republic Rally, and illustrates the positive side of this remarkable movement, which supports President Trump but is much bigger, broader, and better than a single person or election. If you catch me humming Patrick Doyle's "Non Nobis, Domine" from Henry V, this might explain why.

Peterson: One of the things to walk away from this event with is renewed conviction that you have something to do that's your responsibility and your adventure, and that's crucially important and that if you don't do it then you leave a hole in the world that won't be filled by anyone else. And so one of the things I hope that makes the movement that we're all trying to produce here potentially different from the typical top-down globalist utopian solutions is that it's your responsibility and your adventure and if we do that properly—and you Americans have done a fantastic job of that for 200 years—then you can renew your country and the whole world.

Rubin: One of the things that I'm most excited about and I suspect every single one of you is most excited about for being here is that this alliance of people, politically, could have never happened five years ago: the idea that Russell Brand and RFK and Tulsi—and I see a lot of MAGA hats out there—this thing that is happening right now it absolutely transcends politics. We're coming together over health, over caring deeply about this country, our founding documents, our founding fathers, all of the beautiful monuments that are here right now. What do you make of this realignment that we're seeing right now? Because it really has the potential to save the country; I don't know that anything else can.

Peterson: Well, I’m very optimistic about it, and also I would say very surprised about it, in exactly the way you just described. I mean first of all we have this strange spectacle on the Republican side at the moment of a very influential group of people who are heading up the Republican movement, all of whom were essentially Democrats, and so that's remarkable. Now they're disaffected Democrats, and that even includes Trump to some large degree. It's certainly the case with Musk and Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy, and so that's a remarkable thing to see. And I also think the Trump administration, the Trump presidential campaign, has a real opportunity here. You know one of the things that has concerned Americans who are doubtful about Trump over the last few years, despite the fact that his presidency was marked by a remarkable peace—and thank God for that—was his capacity to put together a stellar team, and to be more than merely Trump himself—not that he isn't a force to be reckoned with—and now he has aligned with him these people who are truly remarkable.

Peterson: You have in this team that's generated itself around Trump very, very fervent advocates for free speech, and you know that's another thing that America has to offer the world in terms of model. Because of all the countries there are in the world—including my own country which is failing dismally on the Free Speech front, and the UK which is also in the same boat—there's nothing that you Americans have brought to the world that's more compelling and necessary than the primacy of freedom of thought and speech.

Peterson: Another thing that's very much worth concentrating on—this is something Musk has been trying to bring to the forefront of public attention; it’s going to become a vast issue—is that the birth rate across the United States and the West in general is cataclysmically low.  It's a terrible thing, and you know many, many young people are without intimate relationships, many without children, no multigenerational continuity, and no concentration on the family. And for the vast majority of people, especially sensible people, sensible, sane hopeful, forward-looking people, there isn't anything more vital and meaningful and necessary than their family. Dave was talking about the problems that beset us, and Musk has pointed this out too, there's a profoundly anti-human sentiment that drives the more pathological end, say of the green movement—and there's reasons to be environmentally concerned, don't get me wrong—but telling people that you shouldn't have children because it's bad for the planet—I can't think of anything more malevolent, almost nothing more malevolent than that. That's an appalling sentiment! And young people obviously are sufficiently demoralized so that they're not having relationships or children, and any society that doesn't put, let's say, mother and child first and foremost as something approximating a sacred image is doomed.

Peterson: I'll mention one more issue that I think is relevant too. There is one thing that the Left and the Right agree on. You know it's a strange thing, and the commonality here is not often pointed out, but you know the Left is very skeptical of big corporations—or at least used to be—and the right is very skeptical of big government, and it doesn't take a real genius to point out the fact that both sides are skeptical of BIG.

As I've been preaching for ages, the Republican Party needs to reorganize and rebrand itself as the party of human-scale life.

Peterson: The fundamental ground under our feet is as firm and rock-solid as it could possibly be, and if we could advance into the future with a faithful, courageous optimism, rather than a naive optimism, there's absolutely no limit to what we can do.

Posted by sursumcorda on Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 7:10 pm | Edit
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I have been following Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying's DarkHorse Podcast faithfully for over two years. They are life-long, quintessential West Coast academic liberals, who reluctantly but inevitably found themselves feeling betrayed by their own Democratic Party. (Part of the fun of following their show is watching the evolution of their views.) They would vote for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. if they thought he had a fighting chance to win, but he doesn't, and himself became part of the Trump team. Here, Bret makes the case that Kennedy enthusiasts and other classical liberals need to vote for Donald Trump. The link takes you to a post from 2022 in which I introduced Bret and Heather; for those who are new to reading this blog and want to know who these people are whose opinions I deeply respect, that would be a good place to start. I have listened to Bret and Heather, and read their book, and followed Heather's Substack) long enough to realize how often their facts have been correct and their advice wise. Not always, for sure—but their track record is very impressive.

The relevant part of this video runs from about 00:21:01 (where it should start) to 1:40:25.

(Here's the YouTube link for those who can't see Rumble. The start and stop times are a bit different, but the link should start at the correct place.)

Posted by sursumcorda on Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 9:57 pm | Edit
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Porter, having lived in the Netherlands for four years in the 1960's, was hit hard when he saw this ad—especially when the man bares his arm. Their next-door neighbor, and friend, had just such a mark on his arm, and had also lost family under Hitler's rule. The video is less than two minutes long, and very powerful. Here's the YouTube link for those of you who can't reach Rumble.

Posted by sursumcorda on Friday, October 25, 2024 at 7:12 pm | Edit
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I've written before about how unfair the U.S. tax system is to Americans who live abroad—not to mention how painful the paperwork is. We have contacted various politicians about this issue, but can't seem to arouse any interest. However, things could be changing....

I love Viva (famous for his live coverage of the Canadian truckers' Freedom Convoy in Ottawa) and Barnes (a high-profile lawyer who won my heart for his defense of Amish farmers, and food freedom in general; I have not yet written about that, but it's on my list). However, their prolific podcasting greatly exceeds my ability to keep up with them, so Porter is my designated filter; he can listen at 2x speed, with understanding, while multitasking—and without going crazy. So I can't speak personally for any of the rest of this 2.5-hour video, but that's okay: the important part, which Porter immediately brought to my attention, starts at 1:58:32 (which is where the following video begins) and is less than 30 seconds long.

For those who prefer text, or can't see Rumble videos, here's a transcript. You'll see why it made Porter sit up and take notice.

There's a reason why we have territorial limitations on these powers. This is why Trump is talking about, I'm going to get rid of this altogether. If you're outside of the United States I'm not going to tax you anymore. No, only crazy countries do that in the first place, or even try to.

Will this unjust tax be repealed? I have no idea; but I have hope. As with America's health, someone is finallly listening.

Posted by sursumcorda on Wednesday, October 23, 2024 at 10:49 am | Edit
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I don't know if you can see this X post or not, which includes a video, but you don't need to; here's a transcript.

RFK Jr: I'll tell you something interesting that happened today.

Robert Redfield, who I really go after in my Fauci book, wrote an editorial in Newsweek magazine today saying that he was endorsing President Trump because President Trump was going to restore American health, and he said, "a lot of people might be surprised to hear me say this, but he has chosen exactly the only person who can do this, Robert F. Kennedy Jr."

This was breathtaking to me, because this is the guy who's the head of the CDC that I've been criticizing for years, and then this afternoon he came over and had lunch with me. It was the first time I've ever met him, and the first thing he said to me is, "you got everything right."

(Emphasis mine. I include the Newsweek link for purposes of documentation, but there's a lot of stuff (videos, ads, comments, that sort of thing) that Newsweek put around the article that keep changing and which I can't and don't want to endorse; you know how these websites are.)

I'm posting, not so much because of this particular endorsement, but because I admire a man whose response to heavy criticism is not a lawsuit, but the admission, "You were right." And most of all because he supports RFK Jr.'s Make America Healthy Again campaign.

At long last, people in potential positions of power are asking the questions that I have been asking for decades: Why are we so unhealthy, as a nation? Whence the dramatic rise in allergies, autism, ADHD, Type 2 diabetes, obesity, mental health problems, and other chronic issues? And why are we so quick to prescribe drugs as the first, best, and/or only approach to health issues? The answers to these questions are undoubtedly complex, but we can't solved problems we don't acknowledge.

Do I believe that Kennedy and a Trump administration can really fix America's health? No. Do I believe I will welcome all the changes they would propose? Definitely not. Do I think they are currently our best political hope for turning to a better path? Emphatically yes. They are finally asking the right questions, and asking them loudly enough for people to hear. In the end, we will only get answers, and potential solutions, if enough people recognize that there is a problem, and insist that we do better.

The forces arrayed against true change for the better are massive and powerful. Donald Trump and his broad coalition of people who recognize the problem are standing as David versus Goliath. But I would vote for one of David's five smooth stones if I thought it would be part of the solution.

Posted by sursumcorda on Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 8:04 am | Edit
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Many people for whom I have a great respect have been supporters of the presidency of Donald Trump from the beginning. When I wrote "What Is a Trump Supporter?" back in December 2016, I thought I knew only two of them. Since then, I have realized that I know very many more: from among those who had previously been shy about revealing their support, and from the many subsequent converts. The population of current Trump supporters I know is now quite diverse, but my overall judgement of their intelligence, generosity, open-mindedness, compassion, and integrity still stands.

The following is a statement from one of the converts I know well.


How I Came to be a Trump Supporter

I have disliked the man for decades. Thought he was an arrogant New Yorker and immoral as well. Hated “The Apprentice.” In 2016 I voted for Ben Carson in the Republican primary. I thought Trump’s brash, abrasive approach was too much and unpresidential. Once he got elected, I hoped he would grow into the job. I wished he would never Tweet—what he said was often embarrassing or worse. However, many of his policies were good. His simplification of the income tax was good. His attempt to control the southern border was the right idea. His choices for Supreme Court justices seem good. His rule to get rid of two Federal rules for every new one created was great. However, this policy ran into the “be” team. The Federal bureaucracy. In a now infamous meeting with State Department officials a Trump appointee outlined some policies that Trump wanted implemented and they bluntly said, “No.” They explained that they were part of the “be” team, the people who would be there long after Trump, and whoever was next, were gone. They didn’t like the policy, so it wasn’t going to happen.

This was one of the first items that led me to believe the swamp really needs draining. We are supposed to be a government of the people, by the people and for the people, not of the bureaucrats, by the bureaucrats and for the bureaucrats. Trump's choice of JD Vance for VP will help to increase the chance that the draining of the swamp will continue post Trump. And now that RFK Jr. has joined the team, there is real hope that the CDC will be reformed.

Here is a list of Trump's accomplishments. Compare these to Harris’s rhetoric, much less her “accomplishments.”

Highest real median household income in history—a record that still holds from 2019.

Annual inflation rate of 1.9% throughout term.

Cut 8 regulations for every new one enacted and reduced taxes.

Better trade agreements with Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea and others.

Net gain of 7 million new jobs. 1.2 million in manufacturing and construction.

Net gain of 12,000 factories.

Created Opportunity Zones which has brought in hundreds of billions in investments to lower income neighborhoods.

Lowest unemployment rate in 50 years. Lowest unemployment for women in nearly 70 years.

Lowest unemployment in history for Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Native Americans.

Lowest poverty rate in history for Black and Hispanic Americans.

Passed Right to Try drug law which has made life-saving treatments available to previously terminally ill patients.

Lowered drug prices for the first time in 51 years.

VA Choice reimbursed veterans who needed faster medical care outside of a VA clinic.

VA Accountability which allowed for the removal of abusive employees.

First president in 40 years to not start a war.

Deescalated nuclear war tensions with North Korea.

Middle East peace deals

Got fellow NATO members to meet their obligations.

Defeated ISIS. Net drawdown of overseas troops.

Massive upgrade of our military equipment. Launched Space Force.

Russia did not take any land under his watch, unlike during Bush, Obama, and Biden administrations.

Built/renovated over 500 miles of border wall.

Remain in Mexico policy.

15,000 Mexican troops guarding our southern border plus 10,000 on Mexico's southern border.

Achieved the lowest number of illegal border crossings in recorded history. (I don’t think they kept statistics in the days of Pancho Villa – 1916.)

Deported thousands of foreign gang members.

Passed Criminal Justice Reform.

Became a net exporter of energy for the first time in nearly 70 years.

I’d like to see more of this. So, despite his sometimes-grinding personality (which is the only side the mainstream media shows) I support him for his last term.

The fact they changed the law to go after him (statue of limitation changes) and gave a whole new meaning to “Trumped up charges” also made me realize that they shouldn’t be allowed to get away with lawfare or it will become the norm.

Posted by sursumcorda on Monday, October 21, 2024 at 1:11 pm | Edit
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Because I'm always saying it's better to judge politicians by their works than by their words, I was recently asked privately to compare President Biden's and President Trump's actions while in office. As a true Conservationist, I'm happy to reuse/recyle what I write when I can, so with minor modifications I post it here.


Oh, how hard it is to be brief! I started a more detailed and complete answer, but soon realized it would be too long.  I then intended this to be a much smaller Good Enough Is Better Than Perfect version. It's still lacking in major points—and it's still too long—but I can only do what I can do. Time is short.

INTRODUCTORY COMMENTS

  • It is clear that I believe Trump's record is far superior to Biden's, but I will be the first to admit that he made mistakes. However, most of Trump's mistakes seem to be attributable to trusting the wrong people, which happens when you step into a new situation—you have to trust the existing people until you know otherwise. He has learned a lot that should stand him in good stead for a second term.
  • When I say "President Biden" I'm talking about his administration, because it has been obvious for years that he, himself, has not been competent to do the job, although this has only recently been generally acknowledged. Nonetheless, whoever has actually been making policy—Cabinet heads? Vice President Harris? Jill Biden?—a vote for Kamala Harris is a vote for more of the same (or worse), as she did then and still insists that Biden was/is fully capable and has done a fantastic job. 

SPECIFIC EXAMPLES

  • Supreme Court nominations The power of the president to nominate justices to the Supreme Court is of paramount importance. Conservative presidents tend to nominate judges who respect the Constitution rather then "legislate from the bench," which I consider extremely important. It is the job of the Legislature to pass laws, and the job of the Supreme Court to determine whether or not they are Constitutional.
  • Border security
    • Trump prioritized immigration control and sealing our dangerously leaky borders. 
    • Biden threw open the borders, to the point where millions of people have been pouring in, not just from Mexico, but from all over the world, including Africa and China. This is not normal immigration, with all the vetting and investigation and waiting and work—as it is if a non-citizen wants to come from Switzerland, for example. This is uncontrolled, undocumented, dangerous, and a huge drain on American resources. Bus- and plane-loads of migrants are being transported by the current government into the interior of the country, without the consent of the destination towns, which they severely disrupt. This is not the same thing as settling the Southeast Asian "boat people" after the Vietnam War, which we lived through and participated in. That was much smaller in scale, and voluntary, as churches and individuals sponsored and cared for refugee families, helping them adjust and adapt to American culture. This is vastly different. Plus, because of their illegal status, refugees are being treated as slaves—there is no better word for it—for labor and for sex. This we know directly; it is not some Republican conspiracy theory. And with no control, there is no doubt at all that many people are getting into the United States who are dangerous criminals, terrorists, and spies. Border security is possibly the most critical of all the issues; I can say more, but this is already too long.
  • American independence. Trump had been working on building up American energy and manufacturing and trade to encourage foreign trade while making incentives to encourage production in the U.S. and limit our dependence on other countries whose interests are not necessarily aligned with ours. I don't have time to deliniate more, but for one big example: Trump restarted the process necessary to build the Keystone Pipeline from Canada, and Biden immediately stopped it again.
  • War and peace
    • Trump brokered the Abraham Accords in the Middle East.
    • Trump succeeded in convincing EU countries to take more financial responsibility for NATO and their own defense.
    • Trump did not get us into any new wars, and was drawing down our overseas military involvement. 
    • Biden presided over a disastrous exit from Afghanistan that left civilians, servicemen, and top secret technology behind. (Our own U.S. Representative, Cory Mills, personally stepped in to rescue stranded citizens when the federal government was slow to do so.
    • Biden has gotten us disastrously entangled in a war with Russia, and brought us closer to WWIII than since Russian submarine officer Vasily Arkhipov saved our bacon in 1962. The impulse to support the Ukraine was understandable, but ill-advised and inconsistent with our previous responses to Russian military action. Personally, much as I dislike Putin, I think he has been remarkably patient with our unbelievably aggressive and devastating actions against a country with nuclear weapons pointed at us. This is not self-defense; this is "poking the bear."
    • More close to home, the generators that had been allocated to help Americans during disasters like what hurricane Helene did to Appalachia were instead sent to the Ukraine. FEMA was supposedly paid for them—but they weren't there when we needed them, and you can't generate electricity with dollars.
  • COVID response
    • Trump made major mistakes in his response to COVID, for which I'm still awaiting an apology, though at least he now knows that he trusted the wrong people on this.
    • However, while Biden set out immediately to reverse all the good things Trump had done, he doubled down on the COVID restrictions, mandates, and inflation-fueling massive handouts of non-existent money. The negative impact of this is incalculable—on the economy, mental and physical health, education, small businesses, family self-sufficiency, and public trust in our major institutions, not to mention our very basic Constitutional rights and responsibilities—especially for minorities and the most vulnerable.

This is just a quick comparison of a few aspects of what the two presidents have done; their policies are another, and perhaps more frightening, issue. But enough is enough for now.

Posted by sursumcorda on Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 7:33 pm | Edit
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Back in February 2020, just before the Florida's Democratic presidential primary, I wrote the following:

I have plenty of opinions on just about any subject, and if you're reading my blog, you know I don't hesitate to make them known. However, I rarely like to discuss politics directly. I also believe strongly in the institution of the secret ballot. Sometimes I don't even tell myself whom I'm voting for until I actually put pen to ballot.

Situations change, and we change in response.

I published my first post to the Politics category in October 2004. Number 100 occurred in March of 2009 (4.5 years later), the count reached 200 in February 2016 (7 years), then 300 in November 2022 (6.5 years), and 400 in September 2024 (less than 2 years). It now stands at 414. Suddenly, I find that I have more political opinions, and more that I'm willing to share. And a lot more to say than I have time to write.

Back in 2018, my friend Eric Schultz wrote an article (unfortunately no longer available) that prompted me to think about a new kind of despair I'd been observing in the Western world. I wrestled with it and put off writing about it because it was a difficult topic and I didn't know how to begin. When I finally stumbled to a start at the beginning of November 2020, I didn't get far. (My Last Battle series currently has only 9 posts, and has somewhat been taken over by Here I Stand.) But the essay I was trying to write was quite different from the one I had planned to write two years earlier. This is part of what I said:

I have been increasingly concerned by the number of people who look around and are overcome by despair. Despair deep enough that they have determined to have no children, because "How could we bring a child into such a terrible world?" If suicide is the extreme expression of individual hopelessness, surely the rejection of reproduction is the same attitude on a cosmic scale.

Although they have this despondency in common, I find that people are coming to this point from many different places, and with many different fears. Climate change, the election of President Trump, an asteroid hitting the earth, terrorism, pandemic, widespread civil unrest, and the takeover of our world by Artificial Intelligence are only a few of the disasters that people believe are on the brink of ending the world as we know it—and any world worth living in. How should we live in such times? How dare we bring children into such a world?

I’ve long wanted to write an answer to these questions, to these fears. In 2018, however, it was composing my response from a position of strength. I saw these concerns as understandable, but not really rational; I certainly didn’t feel them myself to any great extent.

Situations change.

Sometime between the end of 2018 and the end of 2020 (n.b. before the presidential election), I became much less optimistic. Not because of any one particular event or fear, but from stepping back and taking a good look at what has been happening in our country (along with much of the West). I decided it was time to stop sticking my head in the sand about our social and political situation. In truth, I guess it was more a matter of being forced to pay attention, because in the past five or six years, America has gone very rapidly down an insane path, not just in one area, but many. Not that the seeds of the decline weren't sewn long ago; it's the rate of change in recent years that woke up this stewing frog.

It's much easier not to pay attention. And some of us are living such difficult lives that it's virtually impossible to spend the time necessary to seek out the truth about anything. That's one reason I like to pretend that I have decades of life left, that my Must Do list isn't already impossibly long, and that I can afford the time to investigate, and to write what I find. Because it's critically important.

Without going further here into the reasons why I have reached this conclusion—I have already written much, and will continue to write—all of my newfound awareness has led me to this:

  • The 2024 presidential race is the most important election in which I have voted since I became eligible at the age of 19.
  • For the first time ever, I am voting enthusiastically for my candidate (and maybe more surprisingly, sharing my intentions with the world). I have left behind "He's the lesser of two evils" and truly believe that only one presidential candidate, despite his obvious flaws, has a clue as to the imminent danger we are in, and a direction for swimming out of the rip current in which we are caught.
  • I am truly impressed by the diverse selection of highly intelligent advisors and supporters who have realized the same thing and despite their differences have joined together to work with President Trump for causes that I value greatly. This is the first time ever that I have felt understood and represented by any politician. That is no small thing.
  • Therefore, it is with a set jaw and a light in my eyes that on Monday I will cast my vote for Donald Trump and J. D. Vance.
  • As you know, I much prefer to vote on the real Election Day at my local, physical polling place. But having experienced two hurricanes in less than two weeks, I realize that this election is too important to risk a possible disaster that would make voting on November 5 impossible. Taking advantage of Early Voting seems the prudent thing to do.

It is my deep desire that all who read this will also vote for Donald Trump. But I know better than to hope for that! More importantly, I want you to know that I am not trying to persuade you, and have no desire to argue. My job is to provide information, and tell the truth that investigation, experience, and the wisdom of age have revealed to me. Convincing you is beyond my pay grade.

I may be wrong, but "Here I stand; I can do no other."

Situations may change, but one thing has not. The answer to the questions I was struggling with in 2018 and 2020 (How should we live in such times? How dare we bring children into such a world?) remains the same: We dare to have children because they are the best resource we have for survival, as individuals and as the human race. Whatever the outcome of this election, whatever troubles come, whatever problems we face—it is our children who will meet the future. Who knows what great and unexpected inventions, discoveries, solutions, and ideas will come from their youthful optimism, energy, and strength? But they have to be born first. Our most important mission is to bring them into the world, bring them up right, and prepare them well.

Posted by sursumcorda on Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 12:30 pm | Edit
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This excerpt is from a conversation between Elon Musk and Jordan Peterson. The whole show is more than two hours long, and I haven't watched it. This, however, is less than 20 minutes and is absolutely worth listening to. I just love hearing smart people converse, especially when they make sense.

If you want to know why Musk, who supported Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden, now hopes for a Trump victory, this is a good place to start. And that's not all they cover.

I'm delighted to have made the switch to Rumble from YouTube, with which I have many quarrels, not the least of which is that it's owned by Google. Yes, I still use it, as I still use other Google products, much more than I'd like to. (I hope to switch away from Chrome to Brave soon as well.) But I much prefer to support a free speech platform when I can.

However, I have recently learned that some firewalls are blocking access Rumble. That's another sore point, but I can't deal with it now, and will instead try to provide YouTube links as well as embedding the Rumble video. I can't guarantee they're complete and uncensored, but I'm hoping they will be better than nothing.

A YouTube link for this video is here.

Posted by sursumcorda on Friday, October 11, 2024 at 5:00 pm | Edit
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Author S. D. Smith explains that his children's books are good but not safe—and why that's important. Authors like Smith prepare the ground for children to grow into the heroes we will desperately need.

Posted by sursumcorda on Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 12:17 pm | Edit
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(Part 1) (Part 2) (Part 3)

Rescue the Republic—Join the Resistance

My heart is full.

I still wish I could have been at the event in person. I was not even able to be glued to the livestream, as we were for most of Viva Frei's live coverage of Canada's Freedom Convoy; life was just too busy here on Sunday. Nonetheless, I managed to listen to quite a bit of it as I went about my business, once we got home from church. And I've been slowly catching up on what I missed, now that DarkHorse has most of it available in convenient, bite-sized pieces. In a subsequent post, I intend to publish some of my favorites, so you can easily watch them for yourselves, but if you want to see any or all of them now, you can find them at the DarkHorse link, in more-or-less reverse chronological order.  You could even see the whole event, from the pre-beginning to the closing song, all seven hours of it, here.

Rescue the Republic was a good mix of serious speakers, comedians, and musical groups; I even enjoyed the music, which may surprise some of you, given that it is not what I'd call "my kind of music." And whoever could have dreamed up the idea of putting Jordan Peterson and Russell Brand on stage together? It was magic.

The whole admixture was magic. It wasn't a Trump rally, although there were plenty of Trump supporters among both the presenters and the crowd. There was a large contingent of Kennedy supporters, and those who cheered loudly at any mention of Tulsi Gabbard, and plenty of folks who came not to support a particular candidate but because they are deeply concerned about the situation our country finds itself in. It wasn't a rally about individuals, but about issues.

Nor was it only Americans, because what happens in America affects the whole world. When Brand opened with "My fellow Americans," the line didn't get as much of a laugh as it deserved; not everyone realized at first that Brand is from the United Kingdom. And Peterson of course is Canadian.

Kennedy's slogan, "Make America Healthy Again" was more prominent than "Make America Great Again," though MAGA was well represented. I suspect that most of those at the rally will indeed be voting for Donald Trump (and the foreigners wish they could), because they see him as our best chance in what is probably the most critical election in my lifetime—but that was not what the event was about.

The rally, to the best of my ability to tell from this distance, was a huge success. It was nothing of what I feared, and everything I had hoped for—and more. It was just the right sized crowd, too.

As I watched the livestream, I was at first disappointed that I didn't see the Mall overflowing with a huge, supportive mass of people. But it didn't take me long to realize that this was a human-scale crowd, and it was perfect. A place for encounters with people one might otherwise never have rubbed shoulders with, a crowd as diverse at the speakers themselves, united because they all care so deeply and know they have very important work ahead of them.

Do you know what else I saw?

Joy.

Real, deep joy, in both the crowd and the speakers. I refuse to let the Democrats take over that word, or that concept. I'm sorry, but when I see them talking about "joy," they don't look joyful; they don't sound joyful. It appears forced, as if they're trying to generate a feeling they know is important but with which they are actually unfamiliar. Similar to the difference between the scripted "Joe Biden, we love you" and the love I see demonstrated at Trump rallies.

For all that the Rescue the Republic Rally was about a profound, life-and-death emergency, there was no feeling of doom-and-gloom. It makes me think of Henry V and Agincourt:

We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne’er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition:
And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accursed they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin’s day.

I fear that those unfamiliar with Shakespeare may misconstrue some of the language, but he today that sheds his blood with me shall be my brother perfectly describes the unity-in-diversity, joy-in-adversity feeling of the rally. These are my kind of people.

My heart is full.

Posted by sursumcorda on Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at 9:00 am | Edit
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